A look at Global Risks

The economists of the Global Risk Perception Survey (GRPS) of the World Economic Forum, are analyzed to analyze the current situation, this is the Global Risks Report. “Global risk” is defined as the possibility of an event occurring that, if it occurred, would have a negative impact on global GDP, population, or natural resources.

This year’s GRPS has brought together leading insights into the evolving global risk landscape from more than 1,200 experts from academia, business, government, the international community and civil society.

In this year’s Global Risk Perceptions Survey, more than four in five respondents anticipated continued volatility over the next two years.

The economic and health consequences derived from the pandemic have become persistent impacts. Carbon emissions will rise, food and energy will be cut in arms by the war in Ukraine, raising inflation to levels not seen in decades, lowering the cost of living and fueling social unrest. In fact, in the short-term perspectives, next two years, the cost of living, the probability of natural disasters and the geoeconomic confrontation are identified on the podium of risk factors. While in the long term, ten years from a pessimistic perspective, failures and the low probability of success in managing these factors will be determined by the main factors.

The resulting change in monetary policy will mark the end of an economic era defined by easy access to cheap debt and will have vast ramifications for governments, businesses and individuals, increasing inequality within and between countries.

In the Argentine case, the factors stem from strong inconsistencies, not results that are chronic. The risk factors, in order of importance, are: sustained inflation, debt crisis, loss of illegal economic activities, collapse of the State, and crisis in the supply of basic goods or commodities.

Although exogenous shocks have had a clear dominance over risk events in the world since the start of the pandemic, Argentina is one of the countries with dominance of internal tensions and inconsistencies that, by remaining over time, become structural, Such are the cases of inflation and debt, since they are derived from the performance of the public sector, ineffective economic policies and inconsistent with the income of the economy.

The inconsistencies of the economic policy of our country, at least since the beginning of the 21st century, configure inconsistent behavior of economic agents, aggravating the difficulties, such as the demand for low-priced public goods and the constant increase in social assistance. .

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