After the 14% increase in the last two months, is it worth investing in gold?

One of the good assets that has started the year in such a way has been the goldenafter having marked minimums at the beginning of November 2022, andhe metal began an upward trend that has led it to register a rise of approximately 14% in the last two months.

In this sense, son Several analysts projected ambitious trajectories for the metal in 2023. Of course, this is the product of different estimates both in terms of inflation, level of economic activity and, of course, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Three franchise options already established in the market to invest in the coming year

It is for all this that we consider it important to understand thatWhat conditions must be met for the present asset to represent an interesting alternative to incorporate into a portfolio.

Evolution of the price of metal

mehe metal began an upward trend that has led it to register a rise of approximately 14% in the last two months.

we observed that prices can at least stabilize these levels, supported, as we mentioned, because of the recession and the likelihood of finding ourselves somewhere near the Fed’s interest rate peak, a weaker dollar outlook and a slowing inflation path.

All these factors can constitute a floor for the price of gold.

Can gold reach a new high in 2023?

Much of the 2023 outlook for world markets will come from the path of monetary policy, and central banks starting to ease interest rate hikes started last year.

However, we must highlight that, rate cuts for 2023 arose largely from the pace of inflation, since, if this does not continue to converge to the target levels, it will be difficult to imagine a year of less aggressive monetary policies. Therefore, in order to observe a positive impact on gold prices we will need as a sine qua non condition, a shift to more dovish monetary policy by central banks.

On the other hand, it is interesting to see the dynamics that gold declined during the corrections experienced by the market in both 2001 and 2008. In 2001 gold reached lows of USD 256, showing a year later, in April 2002, a rise of almost 20%, reaching a value of more than USD 300.

While, between November 2008 (when the metal bottomed out at USD 708), until February 2009, gold brought down a rise in its value of more than 40%, reaching intraday levels of USD 1,000.

It is necessary to clarify that, beyond the statistical data of the dynamics that gold took during the two most recent market falls, we once again emphasize that For a stage of sustained rise to be repeated again, the conditions mentioned above must be met. Monetary policy should begin to be moderate, which will generate a weakening of the dollar.

What investment alternatives exist?

For people with an investment account in the United States, the easiest and most direct way is to do it through the GLD ETF (SPDR Gold Shares), which constitutes the flargest gold traded fund in the world, with USD 54,000 million of managed assets. One of the main characteristics and differences that this ETF has in relation to other commodity funds, is that the GLD It owns gold bars stored in vaults as its underlying asset, and not gold futures.

Let us remember that the Stock Trading Funds (ETF, for its acronym in English) They are investment funds that have the particularity of being listed on the stock market.. Its operation is the same as that of shares, that is, they can be bought and sold throughout a wheel at the existing price at any given time.

What are the requirements to buy MEP dollars?

Another alternative to position yourself in gold, although it is more indirect, in iinvest in mining companies. Among the prominent ones isn Barrick Gold (GOLD), Harmony Gold Mining Company (HMY) and Yamana Gold (AUY). All three can be operated in the US market, as well as in the local market through the respective CEDEARs.

CEDEARs (Argentine Certificates of Deposit) are financial assets with local operations, which represent ordinary shares of companies listed abroad and that can be purchased in pesos in a simple way. As advantages, we have the possibility of investing in the most important companies in the world without having to have an account in the United States and to dollarize the investments.

In short, we understand that while it depends on various conditions, to incorporate investment portfolios assets linked to Gold represents an interesting alternative to hedge against negative scenarios such as a recession in stocks. Without a doubt, the
investor should consider it.

* Head of Research at IOL investoronline

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