The consultants observed that January would resume an upward trend in inflation and would aim to be closer to 6% than the 5% that it would modify in December. If so, it would not drill that number to approach the 4 percentage points that the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, considered reaching in April.
The REM, prepared by the Central Bank, projects that by June of this year the CPI for prices will be at 64.6%, which means that by the middle of 2023 the goal of 60% forecast by the Government in the Budget for all of 2023.
In this way, the head of the Palacio de Hacienda seeks to keep the price level around 5% per month, so as not to exceed 30% in the first semester and arrive with a margin for the second half of the year, when there are elections. .
The overheating of the dollar in recent weeks, with the blue at levels of $370, also puts pressure on the cost of living and worries the economic team. In addition to the exchange rate, tariffs, debt management in pesos and the presidential elections appear as the main factors when thinking about the impact on inflation in the coming year.
After inflation resumed its upward course in December (5.1%), analysts warned that prices are far from slowing down and that this summer they could go towards 6% per month. The issue worries the Government, which seeks to control compliance with the Fair Prices program. In December, worker inflation was 5.3% and the year closed with a general rise of 95%.
For the second consecutive month in the last six months, inflation was below 6% per month. The “Food and beverages” category climbed 6.5% in December, boosted by vegetables (11%), bread and cereals (8.1%).
When detailing the particularities of this price increase, a Focus Market document points out that “it was driven by the ‘Other goods and services’ category, with 7.9%. The rise in hygiene and cleaning products such as toilet soap and shampoos had an impact. It also revealed that “Home equipment and maintenance climbed 5.7%.” “Below the general level, Education rose 5.1%, Communications 4.8%, Health 4.6% and Transportation 4.2%. Only Clothing and Footwear (3.2%) and Housing (2.9%) registered increases of less than 4%. In the latter case, it was due to the fact that there were no rate increases in the month of December,” the report was sent.
For Damián Di Pace, director of Focus Market, “the interannual inflation data show that the variation in prices in our economy presents the biggest problem in the last 32 years.”
The specialist in turn highlighted the impact of this inflationary dynamic on consumption, which fell 3.5% in December: “With the same nominal value, consumers are buying fewer and fewer products per purchase act. Argentines buy at Fair Prices what they can and the rest validate even double-digit increases in basic categories”.
According to this consultant, in seasonal terms the food basket outside Fair Prices increased by 5.4% in December 2022. In the case of beverages, the average price increase for the category was higher by 7.2%. The category with the highest average increase in the month of December was Snacks and Breakfast with an acceleration of 8.5% monthly average. In year-on-year terms, Dairy products rose the most with a 141.6% increase.
On the other hand, Di Pace referred to the different situations in the pockets of Argentines. “Registered wage earners earn on average against inflation in the last two months. However, they are lost in the entire accumulated year, ”he explained.
And Di Pace concluded: “The unregistered who are the ones that grow the most in volume as monotributistas and self-employed self-employed cannot sustain their standard of living with enormous tax pressure with income liquefied by inflation. In the case of informal workers, the situation is even more serious”.
The blue under the magnifying glass after the close on Friday at $ 370
The blue dollar closed at $370, the maximum value of the administration of President Alberto Fernández, and puts uncertainty in the face of the opening of the markets tomorrow, in which the entire economic cabinet is, which would mean a new shot of the marginal currency in rising prices.
If the parallel currency continues to increase, “it is undoubtedly another factor that affects inflation,” explained economist María Castiglioni. The C&T consultancy said that “the starting data for January show an acceleration in the prices of food and beverages together with a seasonal jump in items related to tourism, which anticipates another month without a drop in inflation.”
So far in this short year of 2023, the blue has already accumulated a rise of $24 after closing 2022 at $346. The financiers accompanied the rise and put pressure on the opening of the markets next week.
Cash with Settlement exceeded $348, after rising almost five pesos, and the gap with the wholesale dollar reached 92.2%, its highest level in the week in which it accumulated a rise of $16.
The MEP or stock market dollar moderated its rise and advanced two pesos to $344, closing with a spread of 89.9% compared to the official, its highest level in two weeks and with a rise of $18 in the last three days.
For its part, the Qatari dollar rose 54 cents and traded at $377. The tourist, which is applied to card purchases abroad, reached $329. While the solidarity traded at $311, and the wholesaler , which is regulated by the BCRA, traded at $181.35.
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