Survey: the Frente de Todos would surpass Juntos por el Cambio by 4%

The consultant Zuban Cordoba and Associates published the first part of a poll made in December. The surprise: if the 2023 election like today, the front of all would prevail over Together for Change in two scenarios. In addition, the scheme of thirds that adds both coalitions and the libertarians continues to be reflected. All the managers measured had a positive image of less than 40% and Cristina Kirchner she continues to have a higher percentage of guaranteed votes even though she is not a candidate.

“If the presidential elections will be held today, for which of these spaces would you be more inclined to vote?” was the question addressed to 1,300 people across the country between December 17 and 21. From different competition scenarios, the one who collected the greatest number of consents was the ruling party. The survey had a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of +/- 2.72%.

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In the first scenario, the Frente de Todos prevailed with 31.3%, compared to 28.5% of Together for Change. In third place, driving a political map of three competing forces, were the liberal-libertarians with 12.4%. 11.3% claimed not to know who to choose, while 9.5% stated that they would vote for “another”. The “non-Kirchnerist Peronism” collected 7.1%.

“To understand the electoral resilience of the ruling party, you have to look at the province of Buenos Aires, a good election there can guarantee Peronism a key electoral ground for the national election. To understand the competitiveness of JxC, you have to look at the central zone in the that Córdoba, Santa Fe, Mendoza and Entre Ríos have their own weight”, the pollsters argued about these results.

zuban cordoba survey

In the second scenario, the Frente de Todos reaches a new ceiling with 34.1%, but Together for Change narrows the advantage to 30%. The case of the libertarians, resolved above all by the figure of the deputy javier milei, reach 12.8%. Leftist parties are also mentioned here, but the performance it is lean: they collect 4%.

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Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, the leader with the greatest intention to vote

In the segment where the electoral potential of each candidate was measured, the Buenos Aires Head of Government Horacio Rodriguez Larreta it reached 10.7% of “sure vote” and 27.3% of “probable vote”.

However, the analysts clarified: “A significant piece of information for the election year is that none of the figures surveyed has a positive image of more than 40%; an unequivocal sign of the Anger of the highly fragmented public opinion in Argentina. Fragmentation that is visible in virtually all indicators.”

zuban cordoba survey

Secondly it is imposed sergio masa, a leader who “continues to show an interesting recovery” according to Zuban Córdoba’s measurements. The leader of the Frente Renovador reached 8.1% of the sure vote and 27.5% of the probable vote.

The podium is closed by the vice president Cristina Kirchnerwho already announced after being sentenced in the Viality case that she will not participate in any Peronist list in 2023. Unlike Rodríguez Larreta and Massa, The former president has a high safe vote floor: 18.6%.

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15.7% of those consulted stated that they could probably choose it. The question that arises here is how the vote of his parishioners is going to be directed without his presence.

zuban cordoba survey

In the ranking of images, all below 40% according to analysts, Larreta also prevails with 38.4% positive and 49% negative. Cristina Kirchner is behind with 34.9%, although with a high load of negativity of 62.7%. Massa closes the first places with +34.8% and -54.7%.

State of mind and management of the national government

The personal question collected by the study showed a high level of negativityalthough with a feeling of hope that appears to predominate in the galaxy of Peronist voters.

In the total, the negative mood reached 60.9% and the positive feelings 37.1%. There, disappointment (30.7%) and hope (24.3%) stand out as two sides of the same coin.

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In the case of the approval of the national government, the results were overwhelming: 63.3% maintained that it was negative and 32.2% positive. “Those who feel closest to the FdT tend to mention positive feelings, while the opposition voter tends to look for negative feelings. Disappointment, hope, and anger are the most prevalent feelings in the study, none with more than 31%,” they added from Zuban Cordoba.

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