When we talk about the exchange rate gap, we refer to the difference between the official dollar and the MEP or CCL.
Being today the orofficial at $180.67, the gap reaches 80%, a level not seen since the middle of last year. Recent history tells us that when the gap is low we should buy foreign currency.
“lowwould be a 70% level. Current levels are not that far from that value.
According to this government, there will be no abrupt correction of the exchange ratewith what the gap, for the moment will not be closed. After having reached the rate of devaluation during the last part of the year (touching 7.5% per month), this 2023 the crawling peg starts at a lower speed (6%).
How to buy the MEP dollar, the most convenient exchange rate for vacations abroad
In the Matba Rofex futures market, a devaluation jump is not expected either, which can be observed in the form of the futures curve, which discounts devaluation rates around 82 -85%(The curve has a slight positive slope and does not jump between months, which rules out a discretionary jump in the official exchange rate.)
One dollar bag “unusually quiet”
The stock dollar is strangely calm and the blue woke up.
Then, Is the stock dollar expensive or cheap?
Many analysts resort to the construction of a theoretical CCL that takes into account the amount of money in the hands of the public and the total deposits (private M3). For them, The theoretical dollar should be around $425.
But With the blue dollar rallying since early December, another gap is beginning to become apparent. The difference between the Parallel dollar ($360) and free (legal) exceeds $30 (10%).
And of here arise the incentives to make a new curl: sell blue and buy mep. But we recorded that operating in the blue market is totally illegal.
In recent times, the blue was stung by the large number of restrictions to access the MEP and solidarity (in January there is an additional demand for vacations), the uncertainty around what is coming, elections, drought, inflation. Although it is true that few businesses were registered.
* SDS Economic and Business Advisors.
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